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توقع: Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

First Blood in Game 1? 91% Ends in Daytime 90% Any Player Ultra Kill 90% Ends in Daytime 50% Volume: $321K Liquidity: $264K Closes: 10 Jul 2026
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توقع: Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 91% 9% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 91% 9% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
First Blood in Game 1?91%
Ends in Daytime90%
Any Player Ultra Kill90%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2?50%
Any Player Rampage25%
Both Teams Beat Roshan10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1?10%
Match Winner7%
Game 2 Winner3%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?1%
Game 1 Winner0%

Market context

توقع: Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D — current market-implied probability: 91%. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Inner Circle and Virtus.pro in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 10 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Inner Circle" …

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Priya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi AnalystandAlex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market Analyst

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