Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Match O/U 21.5 | 99% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 74% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Match O/U 22.5 | 74% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Match O/U 23.5 | 74% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 37% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez | 26% |
| Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: bogota: valerio aboian vs luis carlos alvarez stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Luis Carlos Alvarez in the Bogota, originally scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Bogota: Valerio Aboian vs Luis Carlos Alvarez. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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