Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Game Spread +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to توقع: china open, qualification: tomas machac vs arthur gea. This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Arthur Gea in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'To…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: China Open, Qualification: Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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