Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 75% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 70% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz | 69% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 3 Winner | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 Winner | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 Winner | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 36.5 | 60% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 38.5 | 58% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 40.5 | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 52% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Game Spread +/-3.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 28% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 75% YES probability for توقع: US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz. This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Hubert Hurkacz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' i…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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