Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 100% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
1. FC Köln’s friendly against Real Sociedad is a matchup that leans on reputation more than recent head-to-head volume, because the sides have only a sparse competitive history. UEFA’s record shows a single European tie in 1988/89, with Real Sociedad advancing after a 1-0 home win and a 2-2 draw in the return, so the only prior meetings point towards a relatively even contest rather than a one-sided scoreline.[1][3][4]
The current market sits at 0% YES, which makes sense if the listed exact-score options do not align with how both teams have been scoring and conceding in pre-season. ESPN’s recent results show Köln ending last season with heavy defeats mixed with open games, while Real Sociedad have also been involved in several high-event matches, including a 2-1 loss to Toulouse, a 4-2 win over Aston Villa and a 2-2 draw with Betis, suggesting “Any Other Score” remains a live outcome if the exact options are narrow.[7] FotMob also lists Álvaro Odriozola as unavailable for Sociedad, while Köln have no reported absences there, which is a small but relevant line-up detail for a friendly where rotations can be pronounced.[9]
For traders, the key catalysts are late team sheets, whether either club uses first-choice defenders or goalkeepers, and any change to kick-off timing or venue, as even friendlies can shift sharply on line-up strength. SofaScore and FotMob both place the match on 7 August 2026 with a later UTC start than some listings, so confirming the final official kick-off and the exact squad allocation matters before settlement; in this sort of game, a single late withdrawal or a youth-heavy XI can change the most likely exact-score band quickly.[5][9][13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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