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توقع: 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 100% 1. FC Cologne 0 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0% 1. FC Cologne 0 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0% 1. FC Cologne 1 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0% Volume: $2.2M Liquidity: $45K Closes: 7 Aug 2026
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توقع: 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian100%
1. FC Cologne 0 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 0 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 1 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 0 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 1 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 0 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 1 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 2 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 3 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 1 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 2 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 3 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 2 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 3 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
1. FC Cologne 3 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian0%
Any Other Score0%

Market context

1. FC Köln’s friendly against Real Sociedad is a matchup that leans on reputation more than recent head-to-head volume, because the sides have only a sparse competitive history. UEFA’s record shows a single European tie in 1988/89, with Real Sociedad advancing after a 1-0 home win and a 2-2 draw in the return, so the only prior meetings point towards a relatively even contest rather than a one-sided scoreline.[1][3][4]

The current market sits at 0% YES, which makes sense if the listed exact-score options do not align with how both teams have been scoring and conceding in pre-season. ESPN’s recent results show Köln ending last season with heavy defeats mixed with open games, while Real Sociedad have also been involved in several high-event matches, including a 2-1 loss to Toulouse, a 4-2 win over Aston Villa and a 2-2 draw with Betis, suggesting “Any Other Score” remains a live outcome if the exact options are narrow.[7] FotMob also lists Álvaro Odriozola as unavailable for Sociedad, while Köln have no reported absences there, which is a small but relevant line-up detail for a friendly where rotations can be pronounced.[9]

For traders, the key catalysts are late team sheets, whether either club uses first-choice defenders or goalkeepers, and any change to kick-off timing or venue, as even friendlies can shift sharply on line-up strength. SofaScore and FotMob both place the match on 7 August 2026 with a later UTC start than some listings, so confirming the final official kick-off and the exact squad allocation matters before settlement; in this sort of game, a single late withdrawal or a youth-heavy XI can change the most likely exact-score band quickly.[5][9][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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