Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atalanta BC (-1.5) | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atalanta BC (-2.5) | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atalanta’s first-leg meeting with Hapoel Tel Aviv finished 0-0, leaving the tie finely balanced and explaining why the market can sit at 0% for a yes outcome once the match has already settled to a draw.[1][8][9] That sort of price is usually seen when the underlying event has no live path left, or when the settlement condition is no longer achievable by the deadline; in this case the window ended at kick-off time, so any post-match read is purely about how the fixture unfolded rather than what could still happen.[1][9]
For form context, Atalanta went into the game off a narrow win over Athletic Club and a strong pre-season run, but they had several absences on the injury list, including Kamaldeen Sulemana, Charles De Ketelaere, Honest Ahanor and Isak Hien.[2][13] Hapoel Tel Aviv’s recent results were steadier than the market might assume for an underdog: a 2-1 away win at Ironi Kiryat Shmona followed a 2-1 aggregate defeat to GKS Katowice, while their draw away in Bergamo kept the qualification race alive.[14]
The main trader watchpoints were team news and late fitness calls rather than historic head-to-heads, because there was no meaningful prior rivalry data and the tie depended on whether Atalanta could field enough attacking quality to turn control into goals.[11][14] Sky and ESPN’s live match coverage confirmed the fixture status and scoreline, while FotMob’s team sheet noted Atalanta’s injury list and that Hapoel Tel Aviv had no unavailable players, a combination that mattered for any market tied to line-ups or “more markets” pricing.[2][6][8]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Atalanta BC vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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