توقع: ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand

Platform comparison

Market context

The 19 July 2026 ODI at Kensington Oval is the fourth match in a five-game series where New Zealand currently lead 3–0, having won the first three encounters by five wickets, six wickets, and one wicket respectively[2][4][5][6]. West Indies’ 0% crowd-implied probability reflects their complete failure to win any of the first three ODIs, including a collapse to 138 all out in the second match and a narrow one-wicket loss in the fourth after scoring 188[4][6].

Historically, New Zealand dominate this fixture: since 2003, they have won five of seven bilateral ODI series against West Indies, with only one drawn[11]. West Indies’ recent form in ODIs is LLWLL across their last five matches, but within this specific series they are LLL, having lost all three completed games against New Zealand[2]. The 0% probability aligns with this pattern, as no team has ever come from 0–3 down to win a five-match ODI series against New Zealand in this era.

Traders should monitor final XI announcements for West Indies, particularly whether Brandon King and Justin Greaves (both recovered from injury) break into the starting lineup, and whether Shimron Hetmyer returns after his Major League Cricket stint[2]. New Zealand’s probable XI includes captain Mitchell Santner and key batsmen Daryl Mitchell and Tom Latham, whose spin-handling helped them secure the 2–1 series lead earlier[2]. Any late injury to Santner or Latham could shift momentum, though current squad depth suggests minimal disruption[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.