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توقع: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group Stage

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group Stage" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Match Winner 72% Game 1 Winner 67% Game 2 Winner 65% Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? 63% Volume: $92K Liquidity: $387K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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توقع: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
72% 28% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
72% 28% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner72%
Game 1 Winner67%
Game 2 Winner65%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?63%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?63%
O/U 2.5 Games56%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?38%
Game Handicap: Iron Wing (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)25%

Market context

توقع: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group Stage — current market-implied probability: 72%. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Iron Wing and Nigma Galaxy in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "I…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
and

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