Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 2? | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 77% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 77% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 77% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 74% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 100.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 105.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 110.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 26% |
| Game 1 Winner | 25% |
| Match Winner | 24% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: dota 2: zedi esports vs gamerlegion (bo2) - esports world cup group a stands at 78% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between ZEDI Esports and GamerLegion in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 7 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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