Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score | 15% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5) | 7% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5) | 5% |
| O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Sparta Rotterdam (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam (-1.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Feyenoord’s visit to Sparta Rotterdam comes into the market with the derby history still pointing clearly towards the bigger club, even if the pricing is zero per cent for the “more markets” angle. Across recent head-to-head data, Feyenoord have won the vast majority of meetings, with Sparta’s most common outcomes against them being defeats rather than upsets; one data set puts the record at 20 Feyenoord wins, four Sparta wins and four draws from 28 matches since 2005[1], while FBref shows the last four Eredivisie meetings have produced a 1–1 draw, a 2–0 Feyenoord win, a 2–2 draw and a 1–3 Feyenoord win[2]. The outlier is that Sparta did win the most recent meeting in January 2026, 4–3, which is the main reminder that this fixture can still open up if Feyenoord’s structure is off[8].
The main near-term catalysts are team news and whether Feyenoord rotate after the build-up to a fresh league campaign, because line-up certainty usually matters more than derby reputation for these side markets. Sparta’s recent league form in the Sky Sports feed was patchy at the end of 2025/26, with mixed results and several losses, while Feyenoord’s summer preparation included friendlies against Atalanta, Charleroi, Club Brugge and FC Dordrecht, suggesting their minutes management and sharpness are still in flux[9]. Traders should watch official pre-match team sheets, late injury or suspension updates, and any late tactical reshuffle around Feyenoord’s attacking options, because a stronger first-choice XI would make additional market outcomes materially more likely than the current crowd price implies[9][14].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Sparta Rotterdam vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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