Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 67% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 65% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 55% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 47% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 43% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 38% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 33% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match between the United States and Belgium, scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on 6 July 2026 in Seattle. The market currently prices a 33% probability for a specific player prop outcome, reflecting a tight contest where both sides possess elite attacking quality but vulnerable defences.
Historically, World Cup knockout games featuring balanced teams with high-scoring forwards often settle with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, as seen in recent Round of 16 fixtures where defences struggled against pace. The 33% implied probability aligns with comparable cases where a key player’s availability shifts the line; for instance, when Folarin Balogun returned to the USMNT lineup, experts immediately backed the Americans to advance and the goals market to hit, citing his elite attacking threat as the primary catalyst [1][6].
Traders must monitor final line-up confirmations and injury updates before the 8:00 PM ET kickoff, particularly regarding Balogun’s starting status and Belgium’s defensive shape. Recent analysis from Covers highlights that Balogun’s availability provides the USMNT with a major factor in attack, making his involvement critical for prop settlement [1]. Additionally, watch for late suspension news or tactical shifts, as experts note Belgium’s poor defensive record could drive both teams to score and push the total over 2.5 goals [4].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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