Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 75% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5) | 66% |
| Game 2 Winner | 64% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Match Winner | 24% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 75% chance of توقع: lol: team secret vs karmine corp (bo3) - esports world cup group b. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Team Secret and Karmine Corp in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 15 at 9:40AM ET. T…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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