Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 68% |
| O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees | 57% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| NRFI | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| O/U 8.5 | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Braves and Yankees meet again after New York edged Atlanta 3-2 on Friday night, a result that keeps the market live around a genuinely tight two-team spot rather than a mismatch. Atlanta still brings the stronger overall record and recent underlying form into the rematch: ESPN’s preview had the Braves 8-2 over their previous 10 with a .261 batting average and 3.48 ERA, while the Yankees were 5-5 with a .197 average and a 3.12 ERA[10]. That split matters because the current 57% crowd lean is only a modest favourite price, which fits a game where Atlanta’s road record is solid but New York has home-field and just won the opener[10][12].
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late pitching change, and whether either club gives regulars a day off in a quick turnaround after the extra-inning game. ESPN’s injury list before the series already showed both sides missing significant names, including Aaron Judge, Clarke Schmidt, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Rodón and Giancarlo Stanton for New York, plus Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López, Joe Jiménez and Robert Suarez for Atlanta[10]. That makes batting order news more important than usual, because the market can swing if one side is forced deeper into its bench. The game is scheduled as the second of a three-game set, so any rain delay or pitching scratch would be especially relevant, and if it is postponed the market stays open until completion by the stated rules[1][6].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $207K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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