Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 79% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| NRFI | 51% |
| O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 46% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals meet in St. Louis with the market close to a coin flip at 46% for the Reds, which fits a rivalry game where recent results have leaned slightly towards the home side. The Cardinals have already beaten Cincinnati comfortably this season, including a 10-3 win on 5 June and a 5-3 comeback on 7 June, while the Reds have also had their own strong counters in the series history, so the matchup has not been one-way despite St. Louis holding the broader historical edge.[2][1][4]
For traders, the most relevant moving parts are lineup confirmation, starting pitcher assignment and any late injury or rest news before first pitch. The pregame records cited by ESPN show the Cardinals at 29-21 and 13-13 at home, with the Reds at 26-25 and 13-13 away, which supports the market’s narrow pricing rather than a clear favourite.[3] If either club scratches a regular bat or changes its starter late, that matters more than the season-long head-to-head record, because the two sides have already shown they can swing quickly on one or two innings in this matchup.[1][2]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $158K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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