Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| NRFI | 46% |
| Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| O/U 8.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies travel to face the San Francisco Giants on 14 August in a regular-season MLB matchup with settlement occurring eight days after the scheduled first pitch. The 45% implied probability for a Rockies victory reflects a modest underdog positioning, though context matters considerably given the teams' divergent trajectories through mid-August and the altitude advantage Coors Field typically confers when reversed.
San Francisco has historically dominated this fixture in recent seasons, winning 11 of the last 16 meetings dating to 2022. However, the Giants' 2024 campaign has been marked by inconsistency, whilst Colorado's late-summer form often improves as the thin air at their home stadium becomes a greater factor. The Rockies' road record against NL West opponents this season sits at approximately .450, suggesting the away disadvantage is genuine but not insurmountable. Recent injury updates will prove decisive: monitor whether either team's rotation depth has shifted materially in the week preceding the fixture, as bullpen fatigue compounds significantly in August scheduling.
Traders should track roster moves through early August, particularly any late trades or call-ups that might alter starting pitcher assignments. Weather conditions at Oracle Park—notably wind direction affecting fly-ball carry—warrant attention given the Giants' reliance on power hitting. The settlement window's eight-day buffer accommodates potential postponements, though August weather delays in San Francisco remain relatively uncommon. Line movement in the days immediately before the fixture typically reflects sharper information about confirmed lineups and pitching matchups.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $104K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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