Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| NRFI | 48% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 8.5 | 42% |
| Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants | 39% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Extra Innings | 9% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies travel to San Francisco on 15 August for a National League West matchup against the Giants, with first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. The current crowd-implied probability of 39% for a Rockies victory reflects their status as road underdogs in a fixture where recent divisional form carries weight. Both clubs sit in the lower half of the NL West standings, making this a contest between teams fighting for competitive relevance rather than playoff positioning.
Colorado's recent performance has been inconsistent, with the Rockies struggling particularly in road environments where they've posted a sub-.500 record through mid-August. San Francisco, conversely, has shown marginal improvement in home splits, though the Giants remain vulnerable to teams exploiting their bullpen depth issues. The Rockies' lineup lacks star power but has demonstrated occasional offensive explosions, whilst the Giants' injury situation in the outfield has forced roster adjustments that may affect defensive stability.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations released 24 hours before game time, particularly any late-inning bullpen availability for either side. Weather conditions at Oracle Park—notably wind direction affecting fly ball carry—historically favour certain offensive profiles. The Giants' recent acquisition activity and any corresponding roster moves could signal confidence shifts in their pitching matchups. Injury updates on key position players for both teams, typically announced through official MLB channels by game morning, will refine the underlying probability as the settlement window approaches.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $97K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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