Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| O/U 8.5 | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Extra Innings | 15% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 13% |
| Spread -2.5 | 7% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 6% |
| NRFI | 0% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals met in St. Louis on 7 August, with the market tilting heavily away from Colorado at a 24% implied chance. That pricing fits the recent shape of both clubs: ESPN had the Rockies at 45-70 with an 18-38 road mark, while the Cardinals were 57-58 and 28-32 at home, and the pre-game moneyline also pointed to St. Louis as the clear side[-1]. The broader head-to-head record also favours the Cardinals, who have controlled the series over time and had already won the first game of this set before the rubber-game style swing in the matchup[-4][6].
Recent form is still the main reason the underdog needs a strong line-up or pitching edge to justify a move in its favour. AP noted the Rockies had been 3-7 over their previous 10 with a 5.93 ERA, while the Cardinals were 4-6 with a 4.04 ERA, so the gap was less about raw win-loss record than about run prevention and game state control[-10]. Injuries matter too: Rockies absences have included Kris Bryant and several arms on the injured list, while St. Louis has had day-to-day and IL issues around players such as Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado in recent reports[-10][14].
For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any late scratch in the batting order, and whether St. Louis protects home-field leverage after its recent run of competitive but uneven results[-1][10]. Because the game already sits in the context of a short series, line-up news around middle-order bats and bullpen availability can move the price more than season record alone, especially if one side is forced into a lesser bullpen bridge or loses a regular before first pitch[-4][14].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $359K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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