Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 74% |
| O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| NRFI | 49% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | 46% |
| O/U 8.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers face the Seattle Mariners in a late-season matchup that has been priced close to a pick’em, with the crowd implying a 46% chance on Detroit. Recent market snapshots have generally made Seattle a modest favourite, with moneylines ranging from around Mariners -149 to -155 and Tigers +125 to +137, while totals have mostly sat in the 7.5 to 8.5 range, which points to a relatively low-scoring game where one swing or bullpen decision can matter more than raw offensive ceiling.[1][2][8]
The historical and recent head-to-head picture does not strongly separate the clubs. Seattle has taken seven of the past 10 meetings, but Detroit still leads the overall all-time series 237-218, so the matchup has not been one-way over a longer sample.[4] In early June, the teams split a short series with Seattle winning 4-0 on 6 June and Detroit answering with a 7-3 win on 5 June, which reinforces how quickly the balance can shift from game to game in this pairing.[10][12]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starters, late lineup changes and any bullpen availability news. Current previews have also framed Seattle as the side with the more stable recent form, noting the Mariners had won eight of their previous 10 at one stage and were still being shaded as the favourite on the road in this matchup.[4] Public betting has leaned towards Detroit in at least one recent market snapshot, with Tigers attracting 58% of bets despite Seattle being the moneyline favourite, which can matter if late team news pushes the price further towards the Mariners.[2]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $80K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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