Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 76% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants | 56% |
| O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| NRFI | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers’ visit to San Francisco is priced close to a coin flip, with the market leaning to Detroit at 56% yes while several books have the Tigers only a modest road favourite. That is broadly consistent with the wider market, where Detroit is trading around -127 to -132 on the moneyline and models cluster in the low-to-mid 50s for a Tigers win; one preview put Detroit at 56% and another at 52.1%, so the current crowd number is not an outlier.[2][6][7][15]
For historical context, this is not a matchup that normally produces a strong structural edge either way. Oddspedia’s head-to-head log shows Detroit leading the all-time series 9-6 across 15 meetings, but that is a small sample and does not by itself support a large price move.[8] The more relevant read is that traders are paying slightly more for the Tigers’ recent baseline than for home-field advantage at Oracle Park, which is why the line sits just off pick’em rather than around a clear road favourite.[2][7][13]
The main catalysts are late line-up and pitching updates, because the market has already baked in a tight total of 8.5 and a narrow favourite. San Francisco entered at 48-67 and Detroit at 56-59 in one current game preview, so any scratch, rest day, or unexpected starter change can matter more than broad season records.[11][17] Traders should watch for confirmed starting pitchers, same-day line-up cards, and any injury news before first pitch, since the edge in a game this evenly priced is usually determined by availability rather than by season-long team strength.[13][18]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $290K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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