Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 62% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Extra Innings | 49% |
| O/U 8.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| NRFI | 0% |
Market context
Detroit’s visit to San Francisco is priced as a slight Tigers lean, with the crowd’s 56% YES sitting close to the recent market range rather than signalling a strong edge. That fits a matchup where the Tigers have generally carried the better record and have already handled the Giants on this trip, beating them 8-0 on 8 August while the Giants slipped further below .500[1]. Earlier in the week, Detroit was also the road favourite in the same series at around the -104 to -130 moneyline range, which is consistent with the current probability rather than a move built on one-off noise[2][10][13].
The line is most likely to move on starting pitcher confirmation, any late rest for regulars, and whether either club alters its bullpen usage after the series opener. Detroit’s road form has been middling but serviceable, and San Francisco’s home record has not been enough to offset its broader slump, so a confirmed Tigers lineup close to full strength would reinforce the current price[1][10]. Traders should also watch for any postponement risk or schedule changes, because the market stays open until the game is completed if it is delayed, and only resolves 50-50 if it is cancelled outright or tied[market description].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $804K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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