Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team D | 51% |
| Team A | 50% |
| Team B | 50% |
| Team C | 50% |
| Team E | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| New York Yankees | 37% |
| Washington Nationals | 17% |
| Houston Astros | 14% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 13% |
| Chicago White Sox | 11% |
| Chicago Cubs | 4% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4% |
| Atlanta Braves | 3% |
| Detroit Tigers | 3% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2% |
| Boston Red Sox | 2% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2% |
| Colorado Rockies | 2% |
| Kansas City Royals | 2% |
| Miami Marlins | 2% |
| New York Mets | 2% |
| San Diego Padres | 2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 2% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1% |
| Minnesota Twins | 1% |
| Athletics | 1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 1% |
| Texas Rangers | 1% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1% |
Market context
The توقع: MLB: Most Home Runs (Team) prediction market currently prices this outcome at 51% YES. This market will resolve according to the team that hits the most home runs during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the most home runs, this market will resolve in favor of the team …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: MLB: Most Home Runs (Team). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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