Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 74% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| NRFI | 46% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers | 33% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 18% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The upcoming MLB contest at Comerica Park pits the Athletics (41-49) against the Detroit Tigers (40-50) on Tuesday, 7 July, with the market currently pricing an Athletics victory at 33%. This probability reflects a historical pattern where teams with similar recent form and pitching disparities struggle to cover as underdogs; notably, the Athletics have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents, while the Tigers have covered in five of their last six. The Tigers’ recent surge, winning five of their last six games and allowing three runs or fewer in four of those contests, contrasts sharply with the Athletics’ four losses in their last five, where they surrendered seven or more runs in each defeat.
Key catalysts for traders include the confirmed pitching matchup and injury updates that directly impact run expectancy. Tarik Skubal, the Tigers’ left-hander with a 3.15 ERA and 9.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio, faces J.T. Ginn, whose Athletics team has posted a 6.55 pitching ERA over the last ten games and allowed 22 home runs in that span. The Tigers’ recent offensive output, averaging 8.6 hits per game and slugging .436 over their last ten contests, further supports their advantage. Traders must monitor any late roster moves regarding the Tigers’ injured list, which includes Gleyber Torres (oblique) and Will Vest (elbow), as their absence could alter defensive depth, though the team’s current form suggests resilience. Recent analysis from PickDawgz reinforces the Tigers’ run-line value, citing Skubal’s consistency versus Ginn’s volatility in recent starts.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $123K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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