Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 79% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| O/U 8.5 | 54% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| NRFI | 52% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels | 44% |
| O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Cardinals and Angels meet in Anaheim with St. Louis listed around a mid-40s chance to win, which is broadly consistent with a near pick’em on the market. The recent head-to-head shape is mixed: the Angels have taken four of the last five meetings in one recent comparison set, and they also won the last two games of this series by 3-2 and 5-1 scores, so a 44% Cardinals price is not out of line with the short-term results.[6][3][1]
Form, though, is doing most of the work here. St. Louis has come in on a losing run, with ESPN noting a three-game road skid and consecutive defeats in Arizona before this trip, while Fox Sports listed the Cardinals at 4-6 over their last 10 with a .199 batting average and a 4.29 ERA.[1][2] The Angels have also been uneven, but at home they have been slightly more competitive than their overall record suggests, and the market is likely weighing that against St. Louis’s away record and the fact that the Cardinals have been struggling to string together enough offence to separate in close games.[1][2][5]
For traders, the main catalysts are line-up confirmation, late pitching changes, and any scratch tied to the sizeable injury lists. Fox Sports listed multiple Angels absences, including Yusei Kikuchi, Ben Joyce, Travis d’Arnaud, Yoan Moncada and Robert Stephenson, while St. Louis had JoJo Romero and others on the injured list.[2] The price may move if either club announces a stronger-than-expected batting order, a bullpen arm is ruled out, or if the scheduled starter changes after a recent stretch in which both teams have been vulnerable to home runs and late scoring.[2][5]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $558K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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