Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| NRFI | 48% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 8.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 23% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| Extra Innings | 7% |
Market context
The St. Louis Cardinals visit the New York Yankees in a matchup that leans on home-field edge, recent run prevention and whether either club can line up its best bats. ESPN’s pregame data lists New York at 63-49 overall and 26-23 at home, with St. Louis at 55-57 and 27-25 on the road, which helps explain why a Cardinals win is only priced at a 34% crowd-implied chance. [12]
Recent form points a little more towards the Yankees, but not by a wide margin. ESPN says New York are 6-4 over their last 10 with a 2.27 ERA, while the Cardinals are 3-7 over the same stretch and have been outscored by 12 runs; AP also noted St. Louis were on a three-game slide and had been held to five or fewer runs in the losses that followed. [12][14] The head-to-head history is not one-sided enough to override current form: the clubs split recent meetings, with the Yankees winning 4-3 in St. Louis last August after the Cardinals had taken two earlier games, and the recent series produced several high-scoring results rather than a clear stylistic mismatch. [4][8][9]
Traders should watch the line-ups and late injury news because both teams have had meaningful absences. ESPN lists Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton and Clarke Schmidt among the Yankees’ injured players, while St. Louis have had JoJo Romero and Ramón Urías on the IL, and AP reported day-to-day issues for Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and Brendan Donovan. [12][14] Any late scratch among middle-order bats or a change to the starting pitcher would matter more than the market’s baseline, especially with New York’s recent games being decided largely by pitching and the Cardinals’ results tracking closely with run production. [12][14]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $82K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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