Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 12.5 | 22% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
| NRFI | 0% |
| O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies have split the first two games of this Denver series, which is the key reason a **56% YES** price on Washington is only a modest favourite rather than a strong one. Washington won 7-3 on Monday behind home runs from Andrés Chaparro, Jacob Young and CJ Abrams, but Colorado answered with an 8-7 win on Tuesday after Hunter Goodman’s eighth-inning tiebreaker. That leaves the series form finely balanced even though Washington’s overall record and road profile are better than Colorado’s, which supports a slight Nationals edge but not enough to price them as a clear short favourite.[1][3][5]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, line-up cards and any late rest decisions after consecutive high-scoring games at Coors Field. ESPN’s live matchup page listed Washington at 51-51 and Colorado at 41-62, with Washington also carrying the better away record, so any move away from the current market should come from roster news rather than season-long standings alone.[5] The most relevant dependency is whether Washington keeps its higher-upside bats in the order after CJ Abrams’ multi-homer impact on Tuesday, while Colorado’s short-term appeal depends on whether it can repeat the late-inning power that flipped the last game.[3][4]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $359K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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