Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 93% |
| Draw | 7% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 1% |
Market context
Atlanta United FC host Sporting Kansas City after both clubs have published late availability updates that matter for the line. Atlanta’s latest report has Jay Fortune out with a hamstring issue and Mauricio Amaro unavailable because of visa processing, while Sporting list Or Blorian as questionable and Andre Luiz out pending a visa; Kwaku Agyabeng and Moises Mosquera are eligible again after serving one-game bans midweek.[1][2]
The current 93% crowd-implied YES price is much higher than the club-by-club preview data suggests. Atlanta have been trending better, with back-to-back league wins and a 2-1 away result at Minnesota before this fixture, while Sporting’s recent output has been more uneven, including a draw with St. Louis and the suspension returns only partly restoring their depth.[3][4] Historical meetings also lean Atlanta’s way: the clubs’ last four competitive match-ups have produced two Atlanta wins and two draws, with Atlanta scoring 1.75 goals per game across that run.[5][6]
For traders, the key catalysts are the final starting XIs and any late confirmation on fitness for Atlanta’s midfield and Sporting’s back line. Atlanta’s published availability note already ruled out Jay Fortune, and Sports Mole flagged Will Reilly and Ajani Fortune as doubtful or unlikely, which would reduce rotation options if multiple midfielders are absent.[1][3] Sporting’s chances improve materially if Blorian is cleared and the returning suspended pair are both restored to the matchday squad, but any further absence on top of Andre Luiz’s visa issue would keep the away side short of attacking depth.[2]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $372K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Atlanta United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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