Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Nashville SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Nashville SC (-1.5) | 0% |
| CF Montréal (-1.5) | 0% |
| Nashville SC (-2.5) | 0% |
| CF Montréal (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Montréal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Nashville SC host CF Montréal in an MLS match at Geodis Park, and the market’s **0% YES** price implies traders are not expecting any additional proposition markets to settle in the affirmative without a fresh catalyst. Nashville have had the clearer historical edge in this fixture: across 12 meetings they have seven wins, one Montréal win and four draws, and the more recent league head-to-heads have leaned quietly in Nashville’s favour as well.[4][1]
That history matters because this pairing has often produced a narrow Nashville advantage rather than a chaotic, high-variance contest. One recent example was Nashville’s 0-0 draw at Montréal in May 2024, which underlined how this matchup can tighten up even when the broader scoreline markets point to goals.[3] Current live-data feeds also show Montréal have struggled badly in the matchup, failing to score in both halves in each of the last eight league meetings against Nashville.[1]
For traders, the key watch-points are team sheets, late injury updates and any rotation signal around attacking personnel, because those are the changes most likely to move “more markets” outcomes late in the cycle. Market data already tilts towards Nashville on the match result, with average-odds win probabilities of 51% for Nashville, 33% for the draw and 16% for Montréal, while the same sources also flag an over-2.5 goals lean, so any absence of first-choice forwards or creators would matter more than the broad fixture trend.[2][1]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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