Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| New York City FC 1 - 1 Toronto FC | 100% |
| New York City FC 0 - 0 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 0 - 1 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 1 - 0 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 0 - 2 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 2 - 0 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 0 - 3 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 1 - 2 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 2 - 1 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 3 - 0 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 1 - 3 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 2 - 2 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 3 - 1 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 2 - 3 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 3 - 2 Toronto FC | 0% |
| New York City FC 3 - 3 Toronto FC | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
New York City FC meet Toronto FC in MLS with the exact-score market still pinned at **0% YES**, which implies the listed scoreline options are being priced as effectively negligible rather than merely unlikely. The head-to-head record is balanced enough to keep some scoreline dispersion in play: across 28 meetings, NYCFC have 12 wins, Toronto 9, and 7 have finished level, while the most recent five league meetings have all gone NYCFC’s way, including 3-1 and 0-1 away wins in 2025. Recent H2H results also skew towards mid-range totals rather than extreme routs, with several 2-1, 2-3 and 3-1 outcomes in the sequence.[1][2][3]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups and any late injury or suspension news, because exact-score markets are highly sensitive to one missing striker or centre-back. NYCFC’s recent pattern has been stronger in front of goal than Toronto’s, with the comparable recent-form snapshot showing NYCFC at three wins in five and Toronto at one win in five, while Toronto have also been more prone to low-scoring outings.[1] The other dependency is the match context inside the MLS calendar: if either side rotates heavily, or if the game state changes quickly through an early goal, the plausible score cluster can shift towards narrower home wins or a draw, which is the sort of movement that can move an “Any Other Score” outcome much more than the headline winner market.[4][8]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: New York City FC vs. Toronto FC - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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