Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kilmarnock FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| St Johnstone FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Kilmarnock FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| St Johnstone FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Kilmarnock FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| St Johnstone FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Kilmarnock FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
St Johnstone host Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premiership, and the market is sitting at a **0% YES** crowd view despite a fixture that has usually been competitive. Across the recent head-to-head sample, St Johnstone have had the edge overall, with FootyStats putting the record at 19 wins to 14 for Kilmarnock and five draws in 38 meetings, while ESPN’s recent five-match sequence has been split and low-scoring, including Kilmarnock wins in February 2025 and April 2024 and St Johnstone victories in November 2024 and August 2024.[1][15] That history matters for a “more markets” prop because this pairing has often swung on small margins rather than on one side dominating the other.[17]
The immediate catalysts are team news and whether either side carries forward the late-season patterns seen in their most recent league and cup runs. Sky Sports’ match data shows a fairly even shot profile in the most recent comparison, but Kilmarnock had more possession, more corners and a cleaner discipline record, which can matter if line-ups are unchanged.[2] Recent form snapshots also point in opposite directions: St Johnstone’s late-2026 cup results included a 1-0 loss to Inverness and wins over Morton and Linlithgow Rose, while Kilmarnock were unbeaten in a five-match league sequence at the back end of 2025-26 in one preview sample, with multiple clean sheets.[11][16] For traders, the decisive news is likely to be starting XIs, late injuries and any resting of key forwards or defenders announced close to kick-off.[4][9]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: St Johnstone FC vs. Kilmarnock FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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