Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CS Cienciano (-1.5) | 100% |
| CS Cienciano (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CS Cienciano O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Cienciano O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CS Cienciano O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Cienciano 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Cienciano 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CS Cienciano 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Cienciano 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Botafogo FR 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Botafogo FR (-1.5) | 0% |
| Botafogo FR (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FR 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Copa Sudamericana will feature Peruvian side CS Cienciano travelling to face Botafogo FR of Brazil on 13 August at 8:30 PM ET, with additional markets expected to open around this fixture. The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that supplementary betting options will materialise, a standard expectation when major continental competitions reach knockout or group stages with established broadcast schedules and commercial backing.
Historical precedent suggests Copa Sudamericana fixtures routinely generate secondary markets within 48–72 hours of primary market settlement. Botafogo's recent domestic form and Cienciano's status as a Peruvian heavyweight create sufficient liquidity interest to justify expanded offerings. The Brazilian club's involvement particularly drives market depth, given Botafogo's profile in CONMEBOL competitions and their domestic Série A commitments running concurrently.
Traders should monitor official CONMEBOL fixture confirmations and any squad rotation announcements from Botafogo's coaching staff, as the club often manages rotation across competitions. Cienciano's travel logistics from Lima and potential injury updates will influence market calibration once secondary options go live. Broadcast confirmation across ESPN+ and regional outlets typically precedes market expansion by 24–36 hours. The settlement window closing 14 August at 00:30 UTC allows roughly 16 hours post-match for additional market resolution, standard timing for Copa Sudamericana secondary markets.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: CS Cienciano vs. Botafogo FR - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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