Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Santos FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Santos FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CSyD Macará O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Santos FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CSyD Macará 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Santos FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Santos FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| CSyD Macará (-1.5) | 0% |
| Santos FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| CSyD Macará (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Santos FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CSyD Macará O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CSyD Macará O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Santos FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CSyD Macará 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Santos FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CSyD Macará 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CSyD Macará 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Santos’ Copa Sudamericana tie with CSyD Macará is a first competitive meeting, so the market has no head-to-head history to anchor it. The closest guide is recent form: Santos arrived off a 0-2 home defeat to Athletico Paranaense, but had still gone through a decent run beforehand, including a 1-0 away win at Remo and a 4-2 win over Universidad Central in the Sudamericana.[3][15] Macará’s recent results were stronger on paper, with four wins in their last five according to Goal, and they had also beaten Barcelona SC and Aucas away from home in that stretch.[3][1]
For a 0% yes line, the key read is that this is not yet being priced as a genuine upset or novelty outcome; it is more likely a reflection of how lopsided the setup looks once team news and venue are folded in. Santos have multiple absences listed by FotMob — Igor Vinícius, Lucas Veríssimo, Moisés, Gustavo Henrique and Vinicius Lira — all through injury, while Macará are shown with no unavailable players.[1] That gives traders a clear dependency: any late change to Santos’ back line or a surprise return in defence would matter more than the already thin historical sample.[1]
The live catalysts to watch are the confirmed line-ups, especially whether Santos can field a settled defence after those injuries, and whether the club rotates around the Sudamericana schedule after a demanding run in domestic and continental play.[1][15] Kick-off was set for 13 August at 22:00 UTC, with the second leg listed separately on 20 August, so any market on “more markets” can move quickly if the first-leg pattern is conservative and the aggregate context shifts late.[10][15]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Santos FC vs. CSyD Macará - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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