Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| Qairat FK O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Qairat FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qairat FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score | 49% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5) | 46% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Qairat FK O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Qairat FK O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5) | 7% |
| Team to Advance | 6% |
| O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Qairat FK (-1.5) | 2% |
| Qairat FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qairat FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Qairat FK, the Kazakhstani champions, face PFK Levski Sofia of Bulgaria in a UEFA Champions League qualifying round on 11 August. The 2% probability assigned to "more markets" reflects the current liquidity and trading volume on this fixture—a relatively low-profile tie between two sides outside Western Europe's traditional power bases. The match itself carries genuine competitive uncertainty: Qairat finished second in the Kazakhstan Premier League last season, whilst Levski won the Bulgarian title but have not regularly competed at this stage in recent years.
Historical precedent suggests that qualifying-round clashes between lesser-known leagues often see modest market depth until closer to kick-off. When comparable fixtures between Kazakhstani and Balkan clubs have appeared on prediction platforms, additional markets (such as exact scorelines, player performance props, or card counts) have typically materialised only after team sheets are confirmed and betting syndicates identify profitable edges. The low current probability reflects absence of demand rather than certainty that no further markets will open.
Traders should monitor official UEFA fixture confirmations and any late squad announcements from either club. Qairat's recent domestic form and any injury updates from their pre-season schedule will influence whether syndicates judge the fixture liquid enough to warrant secondary market creation. Levski's European pedigree, though dormant, may attract Bulgarian-focused traders seeking additional betting options. Settlement hinges on whether mondialpredict.com or affiliated platforms formally list supplementary markets before the 15:00 UTC deadline on match day.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Qairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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