Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
49% | 51% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
49% | 51% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 49% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2 - 2 AEK | 32% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 0 - 3 AEK | 31% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 0 - 0 AEK | 18% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 3 - 3 AEK | 17% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 0 - 1 AEK | 15% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1 - 1 AEK | 14% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1 - 0 AEK | 13% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 0 - 2 AEK | 8% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1 - 2 AEK | 7% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2 - 1 AEK | 6% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2 - 0 AEK | 5% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1 - 3 AEK | 2% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 3 - 1 AEK | 2% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 3 - 0 AEK | 1% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2 - 3 AEK | 1% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 3 - 2 AEK | 1% |
Market context
PFK Levski Sofia will host Greek side AEK Athens in a UEFA Champions League qualifying round on 18 August 2026. The match forms part of the early-season European competition cycle, with settlement determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 18% probability assigned to this exact-score market reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise outcomes in competitive European football, where even heavily favoured sides frequently deviate from expected scorelines.
Levski Sofia's recent domestic form and European pedigree provide limited precedent for this fixture. The Bulgarian club has qualified for Champions League rounds in recent seasons but typically faces stronger opposition in qualifying stages. AEK Athens, a consistent Greek Super League contender, has navigated European qualification rounds regularly, though their trajectory in continental competition has been inconsistent. Head-to-head records between Bulgarian and Greek clubs at this level show wide variance in outcomes, with scorelines ranging from narrow victories to heavy defeats depending on tactical setup and squad depth.
Traders should monitor team news through early August, particularly regarding injury status for key attacking and defensive personnel on both sides. Levski's home advantage at Vasil Levski Stadium carries measurable weight in qualifying rounds, though AEK's European experience may offset this. Pre-match squad announcements and any late fixture changes should be tracked via official UEFA channels and club statements, as these directly influence tactical approaches and scoring patterns. The settlement window closes at 19:00 GMT on match day, allowing only the final whistle to determine resolution.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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