Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kuopion PS O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kuopion PS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 81% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kuopion PS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kuopion PS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Team to Advance | 48% |
| O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5) | 27% |
| Kuopion PS O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Kuopion PS (-1.5) | 14% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS (-2.5) | 7% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Kuopion PS O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Universitatea Craiova CS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Kuopion PS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Kuopion PS (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Universitatea Craiova will host Kuopion PS (KuPS) in a UEFA Europa League qualifying round on 13 August at 1:00 PM ET. The Romanian side enters as favourites in most bookmaker markets, yet the 27% implied probability for "more markets" suggests traders are pricing in either fixture uncertainty or a lean towards a decisive first-leg result that would reduce secondary market demand.
Craiova's recent domestic form has been mixed; they finished third in the Romanian Liga I last season but have struggled with consistency in European qualifying rounds historically. KuPS, Finland's reigning champions, qualified for this stage by winning their domestic league but face a significant step up in competition. The head-to-head record is absent—this is a first meeting between the clubs. Craiova's home record in European competition over the past three seasons shows they win roughly 40% of matches at Ion Oblemenco Stadium, whilst KuPS have won only one away fixture in European qualifying since 2022, suggesting the venue advantage is material but not overwhelming.
Traders should monitor team news releases from both clubs by 12 August, particularly regarding injuries to key attacking players. Craiova's injury list has included midfield depth issues in pre-season, whilst KuPS's reliance on their domestic league's top scorers creates vulnerability if suspensions or late fitness concerns emerge. The settlement window closing at 17:00 on 13 August means the market will tighten significantly once lineups are confirmed approximately 90 minutes before kick-off. Any late withdrawal or formation shift could shift the probability materially.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Kuopion PS - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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