توقع: UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Marcin Tybura faces Aleksandar Rakić in the heavyweight main-card bout, with the market’s 24% YES implying Tybura is the outsider. On the available UFC Stats figures, Tybura has the larger heavyweight frame at 249 lbs versus Rakić’s 205 lbs, while both men share a 78-inch reach. Tybura also brings the higher pace on paper, landing 3.56 significant strikes per minute to Rakić’s 4.13, but he is easier to hit, absorbing 3.26 per minute compared with Rakić’s 2.86; that combination helps explain why the market does not price him as the favourite.[1]

The historical read is mixed: Tybura’s route is usually volume and grappling, with 1.30 takedowns per 15 minutes and 70% takedown defence, while Rakić’s profile is more knockout-led, with 64% of his wins coming by KO/TKO and an 86% takedown defence that is materially stronger than Tybura’s offensive completion rate of 33%.[1][3] Comparable cases in UFC betting tend to hinge on whether the lighter, cleaner striker can keep the larger wrestler off him long enough to bank rounds, or whether the size and control edge swings the judges. That balance matters here because both men have similar average fight times, so the bout is live to reach the cards.[1][3]

For traders, the key catalysts are late fight-week availability and any changes to the card, because the market only resolves on the official UFC result and also goes 50-50 if the bout is cancelled, postponed beyond 15 August, or ruled no contest.[1] Recent preview coverage has already pointed to Rakić carrying a four-fight skid and Tybura entering off a March 2026 decision loss, so any official injury, weight-miss, or replacement news would be more important than broad form narratives.[9][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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