Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 184.5 | 54% |
| O/U 185.5 | 52% |
| Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 186.5 | 49% |
| Caitlin Clark: Assists O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| O/U 187.5 | 46% |
| Caitlin Clark: Points O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Makayla Timpson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Kelsey Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| Caitlin Clark: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Lexie Hull: Points O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Aliyah Boston: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Makayla Timpson: Points O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Kelsey Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Lexie Hull: Points O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Lexie Hull: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever | 26% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 21.5 | 26% |
| Kelsey Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Aliyah Boston: Points O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Aliyah Boston: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Caitlin Clark: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 21% |
| Jessica Shepard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Dallas Wings travel to face the Indiana Fever on 14 August in a late-season WNBA matchup with significant playoff implications for both franchises. The 26% implied probability for a Wings victory reflects Indiana's positioning as clear favourites, though the gap between the teams' recent form remains tighter than the odds suggest. Dallas enters the contest having struggled with consistency through the season, whilst Indiana has leveraged strong guard play and improved defensive intensity over their last five games.
Indiana's roster depth gives them a structural advantage, particularly with Caitlin Clark's playmaking and Kelsey Mitchell's scoring punch creating multiple offensive vectors. The Fever have won three of their last four outings, a run that coincides with improved ball movement and reduced turnovers. Dallas counters with Arike Ogunbowale's scoring capacity and Satou Sabally's versatility, though injuries have periodically disrupted their rotation stability. Head-to-head records between these sides show Indiana holds a narrow edge in recent seasons, though individual games often hinge on three-point shooting variance and transition defence execution.
Traders should monitor injury reports through 14 August, particularly regarding any late-game absences that might alter rotation minutes or defensive assignments. Indiana's schedule pressure—they face a compressed fixture list heading into the final playoff push—could influence their intensity, though home-court advantage at Gainbridge Fieldhouse typically favours their transition game. The settlement window closes at 23:30 UTC on 14 August, allowing approximately four hours post-game for final score confirmation.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $216K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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