Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 83% |
| Azurá Stevens: Points O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sydney Taylor: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Azurá Stevens: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Natasha Cloud: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Courtney Vandersloot: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Courtney Vandersloot: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Azurá Stevens: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Chicago Sky | 46% |
| Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| O/U 161.5 | 28% |
| O/U 162.5 | 27% |
| Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 163.5 | 24% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
Market context
The Golden State Valkyries meet the Chicago Sky in Chicago on 21 August, with the market sitting at 46% YES on Golden State. That looks broadly consistent with a matchup where the head-to-head edge favours the Valkyries: they have won four of the last five meetings, including a 91-71 home win on 12 August, and the most recent game was driven by Golden State’s depth and pace rather than a narrow late swing.
The current read is also shaped by Chicago’s injury load. Skylar Diggins remains out with a right knee issue, Rickea Jackson is out for the season, DiJonai Carrington is out with a foot injury, and Aicha Coulibaly has been listed as questionable in recent reporting[1][2][3]. Golden State have had their own absences, with Kiah Stokes and Janelle Salaun both missing recent games, while Iliana Rupert is out for the season[2][3]. The market should stay sensitive to any late confirmation on Coulibaly, because Chicago’s available ball-handling and perimeter defence are already thinner than usual.
For traders, the main catalysts are final line-up confirmations and any late change to the Sky’s injury sheet, especially if Coulibaly is upgraded or ruled out after warm-ups[1][3]. The game is scheduled for 7:30pm ET, so any postponement would keep the market open until completion, while a cancellation without a make-up would resolve 50-50 under the rules.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $229K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Golden State Valkyries vs. Chicago Sky. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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