Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alanna Smith: Points O/U 10.5 | 69% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 21.5 | 67% |
| Alanna Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| O/U 183.5 | 51% |
| Alanna Smith: Points O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| O/U 184.5 | 48% |
| Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Alanna Smith: Points O/U 11.5 | 30% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Assists O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Nyara Sabally: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Points O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Marina Mabrey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Julie Allemand: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 18.5 | 25% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 22.5 | 24% |
| Alanna Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Dallas Wings | 21% |
| Julie Allemand: Points O/U 6.5 | 21% |
| María Conde: Assists O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Julie Allemand: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| María Conde: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Julie Allemand: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
Market context
The Toronto Tempo travel to Dallas on 12 August for a WNBA matchup against the Wings, with settlement determined by the final score including overtime. The 21% implied probability for a Toronto victory reflects their status as road underdogs in a league where home-court advantage remains material, particularly in August when travel fatigue compounds roster depth challenges.
Toronto's recent form and injury status will be the primary drivers of movement away from the current line. The Tempo have struggled with consistency this season, and any late-breaking news regarding key player availability—particularly in backcourt depth—could shift the probability materially. Dallas, meanwhile, has shown volatility at home, winning decisively against stronger opponents whilst losing to teams ranked below them in the standings. Historical head-to-head records between these franchises show competitive matchups when Toronto fields a full roster, suggesting the current 21% may undervalue their chances if the Tempo avoid significant absences.
Traders should monitor official roster announcements through 11 August for any suspensions, injuries, or unexpected roster moves from either side. The Wings' recent performance against comparable competition and Toronto's road record in August provide context for assessing whether the current line reflects genuine form differentials or market overweighting of home-court status. Settlement occurs at 00:00 UTC on 13 August, with postponement provisions extending the market until completion.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $98K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Toronto Tempo vs. Dallas Wings. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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