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توقع: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

France 47% Argentina 35% Norway 11% England 8% Volume: $2.0M Liquidity: $443K Closes: 20 Aug 2026
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توقع: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
47% 53% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
47% 53% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
France47%
Argentina35%
Norway11%
England8%
Spain1%
Mexico0%
South Korea0%
South Africa0%
Czechia0%
Canada0%
Switzerland0%
Qatar0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina0%
Brazil0%
Morocco0%
Scotland0%
Haiti0%
USA0%
Australia0%
Paraguay0%
Turkiye0%
Germany0%
Ecuador0%
Ivory Coast0%
Curacao0%
Netherlands0%
Japan0%
Tunisia0%
Sweden0%
Belgium0%
Iran0%
Egypt0%
New Zealand0%
Uruguay0%
Saudi Arabia0%
Cape Verde0%
Senegal0%
Iraq0%
Austria0%
Algeria0%
Jordan0%
Portugal0%
Colombia0%
Uzbekistan0%
DR Congo0%
Croatia0%
Panama0%
Ghana0%
Country A0%
Country B0%
Country C0%
Country D0%
Country E0%
Other0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 47% YES probability for توقع: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer. This market resolves to the nation represented by the player who finishes as the top goalscorer across all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will r…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
and

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