Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Sporting Kansas City O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Sporting Kansas City 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| St. Louis City SC O/U 2.5 | 99% |
| Sporting Kansas City O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| St. Louis City SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Sporting Kansas City 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| St. Louis City SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sporting Kansas City 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sporting Kansas City O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| St. Louis City SC (-1.5) | 12% |
| St. Louis City SC (-2.5) | 2% |
| Sporting Kansas City 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Sporting Kansas City (-1.5) | 0% |
| Sporting Kansas City (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
St. Louis City SC face Sporting Kansas City in an MLS fixture scheduled for 16 July at 8:30 PM ET, with the market pricing a specific secondary outcome at 15% YES. Recent head-to-head data shows a sharp reversal in form: St. Louis won 2-0 in their most recent Saturday encounter, yet had previously fallen 2-0 at Children’s Mercy Park to the same opponent [2]. This volatility mirrors historical mid-season MLS clashes where a single away win is followed by a home victory, often keeping secondary-market probabilities in the 10–20% range until line-ups confirm defensive availability.
Traders must monitor the final team-news announcement for both squads, particularly regarding suspensions or fresh injuries that could alter attacking output. SportsMole’s preview suggests a 2-0 St. Louis win, implying Sporting Kansas City may struggle to score, which directly impacts markets tied to goal thresholds or clean sheets [1]. With the settlement window closing shortly after the match, any late lineup changes—especially for key midfielders or strikers—will be the primary catalyst moving the 15% probability. No major suspensions have been publicly confirmed yet, but the narrow margin in recent results means even a single defensive error could swing the outcome.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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