Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 82% |
| O/U 224.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 74% |
| Spread -3.5 | 72% |
| O/U 227.5 | 71% |
| Spread -5.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 66% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Spread -6.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| O/U 233.5 | 59% |
| Spread: Raptors (-8.5) | 56% |
| Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 56% |
| Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| O/U 236.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| O/U 237.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| O/U 238.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Spread -11.5 | 46% |
| RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| O/U 240.5 | 44% |
| Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 42% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| RJ Barrett: Points O/U 18.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 40% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 37% |
| Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 18.5 | 36% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 8.5 | 36% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 31% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 246.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 30% |
| Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Spread -19.5 | 23% |
| Bulls vs. Raptors | 21% |
| Spread -22.5 | 17% |
| Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 82% YES probability for توقع: Bulls vs. Raptors. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 7:30PM ET: If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $137K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Bulls vs. Raptors. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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