Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| O/U 227.5 | 59% |
| O/U 228.5 | 56% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 53% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| Team to Score First | 51% |
| O/U 230.5 | 51% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 231.5 | 49% |
| O/U 232.5 | 48% |
| 1H Moneyline | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| O/U 233.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 | 29% |
| Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 27% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 23% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 61% YES probability for توقع: Thunder vs. Spurs. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 20 at 9:30PM ET: If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $104K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Thunder vs. Spurs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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