Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| NK Radomlje O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| NK Radomlje 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| Mura Murska Sobota (-2.5) | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mura Murska Sobota 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mura Murska Sobota 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NK Radomlje 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NK Radomlje 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mura Murska Sobota (-1.5) | 49% |
| O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Mura Murska Sobota O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score | 36% |
| NK Radomlje O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| NK Radomlje (-1.5) | 18% |
| O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| NK Radomlje (-2.5) | 7% |
| Mura Murska Sobota O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| NK Radomlje O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Mura Murska Sobota O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mura Murska Sobota 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mura Murska Sobota 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| NK Radomlje 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
NK Mura will host NK Radomlje in the Slovenian PrvaLiga on 10 August, with the match kicking off at 16:00 local time. Mura, based in Murska Sobota in the north-east, compete as one of the league's established sides, whilst Radomlje represent a smaller club from the Ljubljana periphery. The 49% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting the market perceives this as a competitive fixture rather than a heavily favoured home advantage scenario.
Mura's recent domestic form and European commitments shape expectations here. The club regularly qualifies for European competition and has finished in the top three of the PrvaLiga in recent seasons, though consistency varies across campaigns. Radomlje, by contrast, typically operate in mid-table and lack the squad depth of their opponents. Head-to-head records favour Mura substantially in direct meetings, though home-and-away splits matter in Slovenian football where travel distances are modest and smaller clubs occasionally produce results at larger grounds. Suspension records and injury lists for both sides remain critical; any absence of key attacking or defensive personnel could shift the implied probability meaningfully.
Traders should monitor official team news releases and Slovenian media outlets through the settlement window closing on 10 August at 16:00 UTC. Late-breaking injury confirmations or tactical adjustments announced in the 48 hours before kick-off historically move markets in domestic leagues where squad rotation decisions are made closer to match day. Fixture congestion—particularly if either side has European qualifying matches in the preceding week—may influence team selection and intensity.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Mura Murska Sobota vs. NK Radomlje - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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