توقع: World Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals

Platform comparison

Market context

The listed team has already been mathematically eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, meaning it is impossible for them to reach the quarterfinals scheduled between 9 and 11 July. With the tournament whittled down from 48 entrants to the final eight, only nations that survived the Round of 16 remain in contention, and the listed club failed to secure a spot in that knockout phase [1][2].

Historically, a 0% probability in World Cup markets reflects definitive elimination rather than mere underperformance; comparable cases include nations that lost their Round of 32 matches or finished third in their groups without a favourable permutation, rendering quarterfinal advancement impossible before the tournament even reached its business end [2][4]. In such scenarios, the market resolves immediately to "No" as the team cannot advance, regardless of future match outcomes for other competitors.

Traders should monitor official FIFA announcements confirming the final eight teams and any subsequent bracket declarations, as these are the definitive resolution sources [1][3]. Recent news confirms France and Morocco have already secured quarterfinal spots, leaving six vacancies to be filled by the remaining Round of 16 winners, with no path remaining for eliminated teams [3][5]. Any delay in declaring the quarterfinal matchups after 21 July 2026 would also trigger a "No" resolution, but the primary catalyst remains the confirmed elimination of the listed nation [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: World Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.