Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez | 100% |
| Lionel Messi | 100% |
| João Neves | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham | 100% |
| Luis Díaz | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez | 100% |
| Virgil van Dijk | 100% |
| Jamal Musiala | 100% |
| Nuno Mendes | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 100% |
| Désiré Doué | 100% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 100% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 100% |
| Enzo Fernández | 100% |
| Mohamed Salah | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr | 100% |
| Rafael Leão | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 100% |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 100% |
| Viktor Gyökeres | 100% |
| Arda Güler | 100% |
| Fabián Ruiz | 100% |
| Casemiro | 100% |
| Mikel Merino | 100% |
| Raúl Jiménez | 100% |
| Gonçalo Ramos | 100% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 100% |
| Lisandro Martínez | 100% |
| Bradley Barcola | 100% |
| Alexander Isak | 100% |
| Dan Ndoye | 100% |
| Granit Xhaka | 100% |
| Breel Embolo | 100% |
| Matheus Cunha | 100% |
| Wilson Isidor | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun | 100% |
| Julio Enciso | 100% |
| Kai Havertz | 100% |
| Leroy Sané | 100% |
| Amad Diallo | 100% |
| Nicolas Pépé | 100% |
| Keito Nakamura | 100% |
| Anthony Elanga | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 100% |
| Romelu Lukaku | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard | 100% |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 100% |
| Marcel Sabitzer | 100% |
| Yoane Wissa | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford | 100% |
| Ivan Perišić | 100% |
| Neymar Jr. | 100% |
| Dário Leite | 48% |
| Eberechi Eze | 30% |
| Bukayo Saka | 21% |
| Dani Olmo | 21% |
| Nico Williams | 15% |
| Declan Rice | 14% |
| Michael Olise | 14% |
| Ferran Torres | 13% |
| Rodri | 10% |
| Pedri | 10% |
| Rayan Cherki | 9% |
| Reece James | 7% |
| Marcus Thuram | 7% |
| Marc Cucurella | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | 4% |
| Gavi | 4% |
| Pau Cubarsí | 3% |
| N'Golo Kanté | 2% |
| Ibrahima Konaté | 2% |
| Jules Koundé | 2% |
| Martin Zubimendi | 1% |
| Federico Valverde | 0% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0% |
| Raphinha | 0% |
| Moisés Caicedo | 0% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz | 0% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies | 0% |
| Bernardo Silva | 0% |
| Cole Palmer | 0% |
| Luka Modrić | 0% |
| Denzel Dumfries | 0% |
| Jérémy Doku | 0% |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 0% |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 0% |
| Rúben Dias | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães | 0% |
| Frenkie de Jong | 0% |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0% |
| Vitinha | 0% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0% |
| Robert Lewandowski | 0% |
| David Raya | 0% |
| Sadio Mané | 0% |
| Martin Ødegaard | 0% |
| William Pacho | 0% |
| Scott McTominay | 0% |
| Ryan Gravenberch | 0% |
| Fermín López | 0% |
| Joško Gvardiol | 0% |
| Marquinhos | 0% |
| William Saliba | 0% |
| João Pedro | 0% |
| Weston McKennie | 0% |
| João Cancelo | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic | 0% |
| Son Heung-min | 0% |
| Jeremie Frimpong | 0% |
| Kenan Yıldız | 0% |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 0% |
| Phil Foden | 0% |
| Kim Min-jae | 0% |
| Pervis Estupiñán | 0% |
| Noah Okafor | 0% |
| Abdulaziz Hatem | 0% |
| Ahmed Fathi | 0% |
| Igor Thiago | 0% |
| Endrick | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz | 0% |
| Josué Casimir | 0% |
| Che Adams | 0% |
| Ricardo Pepi | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón | 0% |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade | 0% |
| Lennart Kahl | 0% |
| Tahith Chong | 0% |
| Yann Bisseck | 0% |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | 0% |
| Teun Koopmeiners | 0% |
| Memphis Depay | 0% |
| Donyell Malen | 0% |
| Takefusa Kubo | 0% |
| Khalil Ayari | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan | 0% |
| Chris Wood | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb | 0% |
| Emiliano Buendía | 0% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka | 0% |
| Pedro Neto | 0% |
| Luis Suárez | 0% |
| James Rodríguez | 0% |
| Mateo Kovačić | 0% |
| Iñaki Williams | 0% |
| Ismael Díaz | 0% |
| Luis Javier Suárez | 0% |
| Darwin Nunez | 0% |
Market context
توقع: World Cup: Player to score — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed player scores a goal during any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. A goal scored during regular t…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: World Cup: Player to score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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