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توقع: Next leader out of power before 2027?

Football snapshot for "توقع: Next leader out of power before 2027?" with form, lineup and platform comparison on a single page.

None before 2027 50% Netanyahu - Israel PM 30% Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 4% Lecornu - France PM 4% Volume: $1.2M Liquidity: $593K Closes: 1 Jan 2027
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توقع: Next leader out of power before 2027?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
None before 202750%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea4%
Lecornu - France PM4%
Sánchez - Spanish PM3%
Macron - France President1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President1%
Abbas - President of Palestine1%
Merz - German Chancellor1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President0%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP0%
Albanese - Australia PM0%
Newsom - California Governor0%
Milei - Argentina President0%
Trump - USA President0%
Putin - Russia President0%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President0%
Takaichi - Japan PM0%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President0%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President0%
al-Sharaa - Syria President0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 50% probability to توقع: next leader out of power before 2027?. This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the o…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Next leader out of power before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Priya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi AnalystandAlex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market Analyst

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