Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| December 31 | 56% |
| September 30 | 35% |
| June 30 | 0% |
Market context
STRC is a preferred share of Strategy Inc that has spent recent weeks trading well below the $100 level, with TradingView putting it at about $80.84 and Yahoo showing a 52-week band of $71.25 to $100.42.[18][19] That places the market’s target at the very top of the stock’s recent range rather than in unexplored territory, which helps explain why the current crowd view is still near zero despite the security having already printed above $100 on a 52-week basis.[1][19]
The clearest historical guide is that STRC has approached par before and then slipped back, so a brief touch is more plausible than a durable breakout if liquidity improves or sentiment turns quickly.[1][9][18] Recent coverage has also said Strategy’s stated corporate objective is for STRC to trade between $99 and $100 over time, while Bitcoin-linked cash-flow conditions and the company’s balance-sheet management have been cited as reasons the preferred has recovered from earlier lows.[3][5][9] That makes the market highly sensitive to any move that tightens the spread around par, because the settlement rule only needs a single one-minute candle high at or above $100.
Traders will be watching company updates, any preferred-share dividend or capital-allocation announcements, and broader Bitcoin price stability, since those are the main drivers flagged in recent reporting on STRC’s rebound.[3][4][5] The relevant dependency is not an exchange-wide average but a TradingView one-minute candle high on NASDAQ:STRC, so even a fast intraday spike on thin volume would settle the market if it reaches $100.[18]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: STRC hits $100 by…. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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