توقع: Which company has the best Math AI model end of July?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic currently holds the top spot in the Chatbot Arena’s Math sub-arena, with claude-opus-4-6-thinking leading at 1518 Elo, while Google’s models trail in the June resolution where Google secured 100% of the outcome[2][1]. Historical data shows Math Elo has gained +172 points since tracking began, making it the fastest-improving category among LLM benchmarks, with top scores rising from 1094 in May 2023 to 1501 by July 2026[2]. This rapid ascent suggests the 50% crowd-implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty, as the gap between leaders like Anthropic and Google has narrowed to statistically negligible margins for most tasks[4].

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s release schedule for any Opus 4.7 or Fable 5 updates, as coding and math sub-arenas have shown Anthropic dominance in Python, Rust, and Go despite Google’s overall Elo lead[2][4]. Google’s GPT-5.4 Pro achieved 1502 Elo in March 2026, surpassing Claude Opus 4.6 by 8 points in general reasoning, but Anthropic retains the Math lead[2][4]. Key catalysts include July 2026 leaderboard updates from LMSys Arena, where composite quality indices currently rank Claude Fable 5 at 100/100 across 362+ models[3]. Any suspension of model access or new benchmark methodology changes could shift the Math leaderboard before the 31 July settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Which company has the best Math AI model end of July?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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