توقع: Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate

Platform comparison

Market context

The Granby Challenger match between Murphy Cassone and Tristan Schoolkate, originally slated for 13 July, has been played on 14 July 2026 with Cassone winning 1–0 in the recorded fixture, though the prediction market remains open to resolve on who advances if the contest is replayed or if the initial result was a preliminary round not affecting advancement [2]. The 100% YES crowd-implied probability suggests the market treats Cassone’s advancement as effectively certain, likely due to the match already being completed in his favour or a withdrawal by Schoolkate not yet reflected in public odds.

Historically, Schoolkate holds a 2–0 head-to-head advantage over Cassone, including a 2–0 set victory at Delray Beach ATP in February 2026, which complicates the 100% pricing unless the current Granby fixture is a distinct event where Cassone has already secured progression [1][4]. In similar Challenger markets, probabilities near 100% have only resolved correctly when one player withdrew before play or when a match was completed and the result confirmed advancement; any delay beyond seven days or cancellation would force a 50–50 resolution, a risk absent only if the outcome is already settled.

Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger Granby updates for confirmation of whether Cassone’s 1–0 result constitutes match completion and advancement, or if the fixture is void due to scheduling error [2]. Key catalysts include the tournament’s official draw update, any injury announcements from Schoolkate, and the settlement window’s dependency on the match being fully played within seven days of the original 13 July date [1]. No recent news source has confirmed a withdrawal, but the discrepancy between the 2–0 H2H record and the 100% market price warrants verification of the match’s actual status.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.