Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Game Spread +/-2.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for توقع: US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo. This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Hanfmann and Alejandro Tabilo in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yannick H…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Alejandro Tabilo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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